29th January 2024

ECOWAS Meltdown

West African nations Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have announced their immediate withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas). Accusing Ecowas of betraying its founding principles and failing to assist in the fight against terrorism, the military-led governments of the three countries cited irrational and unacceptable sanctions as reasons for the withdrawal. Ecowas had been advocating for a return to civilian rule, creating tensions with the military leadership. The move is likely to have diplomatic and economic repercussions for the nations, as Ecowas members enjoy free movement across borders and share a common currency and market.

China Powers Congo

In a transformative initiative, Chinese companies, particularly Sinohydro, have significantly contributed to addressing Kinshasa's persistent electricity shortage in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The completion of the Zongo II Hydroelectric Power Plant, boasting a 150-megawatt capacity, now supplies a quarter of Kinshasa's electricity. The newly established 220kV transmission line ensures seamless energy distribution, positively impacting residents and businesses. Local testimonies reflect the substantial improvement in daily life and economic activities. Representatives express satisfaction, emphasizing the collaborative efforts of Chinese engineers in brightening the future of Kinshasa and fostering development in the DRC.

Ethiopia Spy Chief Moves Up

Ethiopia's Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen, in office for over 11 years, will be succeeded by spy chief Temesgen Tiruneh. Temesgen was elected as a vice president of the ruling Prosperity Party, indicating his role as the new deputy prime minister. Demeke, a symbol of continuity in turbulent times, navigated through political changes since 2012. Temesgen, head of the national intelligence service, played a key role in responding to the Amhara region conflict. Ethiopia grapples with ongoing insecurity in Amhara, Tigray, and Oromiya regions despite a peace deal in Tigray.

Ramaphosa Applauds ICJ Ruling

South African President Ramaphosa welcomed the International Court of Justice's (ICJ) ruling imposing emergency measures on Israel over the Gaza conflict, expecting compliance. The ICJ ordered Israel to prevent genocide, punish incitement, and improve humanitarian conditions in its conflict with Hamas. The ruling stopped short of demanding a ceasefire, and the core case on whether genocide occurred awaits future judgment. Ramaphosa connected South Africa's past abuses to global concerns. Israel dismissed the genocide allegations. South Africa's pursuit in the ICJ underscores its pro-Palestinian stance, comparing their struggle to its anti-apartheid fight.

25th January 2024

Kenya's $429M Infrastructure Boost

Kenya plans to raise $429 million through an 8.5-year tax-free infrastructure bond, following a series of successful issuances. The government has raised $2.3 billion since January 2023 through similar bonds to fund various projects. The Central Bank of Kenya is expected to announce the offer soon, and terms may be subject to change. The move aligns with Kenya's ongoing efforts to finance key infrastructure developments, including road construction and water supply projects. The latest offering follows a trend of successful bond auctions, with the previous sale in December 2022 raising $868 million.

Naira Undervalued: CBN

Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Olayemi Cardoso anticipates a moderation in inflation in 2024, citing the bank's inflation-targeting policy. He described the country's naira currency as "undervalued" and emphasized the need for coordinated fiscal measures. The central bank is expected to raise interest rates in its upcoming meeting to tackle inflation, which stood at 28.9% in December. Cardoso aims for genuine price discovery and transparency in exchange rates. The Association of Bureaux de Change Operators of Nigeria received approval to publicly post naira exchange rates online, reversing previous measures to control the unofficial market.

Huge Demand for Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast successfully re-entered the dollar-bond market, raising $2.6 billion in an oversubscribed offering. The world's leading cocoa producer saw over $8 billion in combined demand for a sustainable bond maturing in 2033 and a conventional offering due in 2037. This move, Ivory Coast's first in almost seven years, signifies a shift for sub-Saharan African nations, previously locked out of international debt markets due to rising US interest rates. The bonds will be eligible for inclusion on the JPMorgan EMBI Index, offering improved liquidity and potential benefits for the region.

Russia Challenges French Influence

Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed Chadian leader Mahamat Idriss Deby in the Kremlin, marking a shift as Chad, historically a pro-Western nation, engages with Russia's outreach in Africa's Sahel region. Russia aims to reduce French influence and build ties with countries affected by recent coups. Putin expressed readiness to assist Chad and noted opportunities for bilateral ties, doubling the quota for Chadian students in Russian universities. This move follows Russia's engagement with Niger after a 2023 coup, signaling a broader shift in alliances as some African nations pivot towards Russia.

24th January 2024

Egypt-Russia Inaugurate Dabaa Plant

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Egypt's Abdel Fattah al-Sisi inaugurated the construction of the final unit at Egypt's Dabaa nuclear power plant, marking progress in Moscow's global nuclear ambitions. The $30 billion project by Rosatom will comprise four units with a total capacity of 4.8 gigawatts. Egypt, facing rising power demand from its 105 million population, aims to become a regional energy hub and diversify energy sources. The move towards nuclear energy is seen as crucial in meeting growing electricity demand. Russia and Egypt signed the agreement in 2015, with Russia providing a loan for construction.

Uganda's $4B Refinery Deal

Uganda is in talks with Alpha MBM Investments, led by Dubai's Sheikh Mohammed bin Maktoum bin Juma Al Maktoum, for a $4 billion oil refinery project. Negotiations with a previous consortium, including a unit of U.S. firm Baker Hughes, were terminated last year. The 60,000 barrel-per-day refinery is crucial for Uganda's emerging hydrocarbons sector. Talks on commercial details began on Jan. 16 and are expected to conclude in three months. Uganda plans to commence commercial oil pumping in 2025 from the Albertine rift basin fields, operated by the government, China's CNOOC, and France's TotalEnergies.

 Somalia-Ethiopia Diplomatic Clash

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud warns Ethiopia against implementing a port deal with Somaliland, leasing 20km of its coastland. Mohamud warns Ethiopia not to cross into Somalia's territory to reach the leased area. Egypt, engaged in a separate dispute with Ethiopia over a dam, vows support to Mogadishu. Ethiopia aims to establish a marine force base and gain a Red Sea port for maritime exports. Somaliland welcomes the deal, seeking international recognition and economic opportunities. Somalia protests, viewing it as a threat to its territorial integrity. Arab League, Qatar, Turkey, the US, EU, and OIC urge Ethiopia to respect sovereignty.

Naira Rate transparency

Nigeria is set to publicly display naira exchange rates online as part of efforts to narrow the gap between official and unofficial rates. The move, approved by the financial crimes watchdog, aims to improve market competitiveness. Since the reforms began in June, the naira has weakened by approximately 50% against the dollar. The spread between the official and parallel markets has widened due to a local shortage of dollars. Finance Minister Wale Edun stated that the backlog of demand for dollars in the official market is around $5 billion, while others estimate it could be twice as high.

23rd January 2024

UN membership hope for Africa

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed hope for a partial reform of the U.N. Security Council during the Group of 77 summit in Uganda. Guterres noted support from all five permanent members—U.S., Russia, China, UK, and France—for at least one African permanent member. While no guarantees exist, the African Union aims for two permanent seats. Guterres highlighted the Security Council's paralysis due to geopolitical divisions and called for reforms to align with the current global reality. He criticized the global financial system, emphasizing its failure to provide adequate support for developing countries.

Blinken Strengthens African Bonds

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken pledges deeper relations with Africa during his four-country tour, emphasizing commitment to partnerships. In Cape Verde, he lauds the nation as a "beacon of stability" and criticizes Russia's invasion of Ukraine, while urging for liberal democracy values. Blinken tours infrastructure projects and discusses partnerships. The visit includes Ivory Coast, highlighting China's influence, and addresses concerns over the Sahel's security. The U.S. seeks continued engagement with Africa, especially amid geopolitical shifts and security challenges. Meanwhile, U.N. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield monitors peaceful transitions in Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, and Liberia during her concurrent West African tour.

Kenya’s Shilling Hit Low
Kenya's shilling, the second-worst performing African currency in 2024, hit a record low of 162.29 against the dollar. Despite nearly $900 million in new funding pledges, analysts anticipate further depreciation due to rising import costs. The worst-case scenario sees the shilling weakening to 210 against the US dollar by year-end. The Central Bank of Kenya's struggle with dollar reserves and a looming Eurobond repayment deadline in June add to concerns. While a weaker shilling may impact imports and debt-service costs, the flexible exchange-rate policy gains IMF support, with recent disbursements totaling $684.7 million.

Tunisia Eases Default Worries

Tunisia's Finance Minister, Sihem Boughdiri, announces successful repayment of all 2023 domestic and external debts, easing concerns about default. Despite economic pressures, Tunisia manages to settle debts. The country is set to pay $4 billion in foreign debts in 2024, a 40% increase from 2023, amid a scarcity of external financing. Experts note reliance on internal loans to settle external debts, impacting liquidity and reducing banks' financing for the economy. Tunisia anticipates the public debt to reach approximately $45.17 billion in 2024, constituting 79.8% of GDP, up from $41.91 billion. Economic challenges persist with rising foreign debt.

22nd January 2024

Zimbabwe's Currency Stabilization Plans:

Zimbabwe plans to unveil measures to stabilize its currency, which has seen a 32% decline on the official market and over 40% on the parallel market this year. Potential actions include reforming the central bank's weekly foreign-exchange auction and increasing the supply of US dollars. Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube noted the government's intention to address volatility through fiscal and monetary policy measures, emphasizing the need to boost the supply of foreign currency amid high demand. The Zimbabwe dollar, reintroduced in 2019, has faced challenges, with the US dollar still dominant in 80% of economic transactions.

Senegal's Election Dynamics:

Senegal prepares for elections with 20 approved candidates after excluding Ousmane Sonko, a prominent opposition figure, whilst Prime Minister Amadou Ba, faces internal coalition divisions. The opposition, weakened by legal challenges, sees Bassirou Faye as a key contender, though he is also in jail. Sonko's exclusion may trigger unrest in the fast-growing economy, as he remains popular, especially among youth. The move comes after Sonko's six-month suspended prison sentence was upheld, making him ineligible. Other notable candidates include Habib Sy, Khalifa Sall, and Idrissa Seck.

Egypt Asserts Somalia's Security:

"Egypt will not allow anyone to threaten Somalia or affect its security," declared President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, emphasizing Egypt's stance on Somalia amid tensions over Ethiopia's consideration of recognizing Somaliland's independence in a port access deal. The deal, not yet finalized, proposes Ethiopia's access to the port of Berbera in return for recognizing Somaliland's independence. Ethiopia asserts the deal is commercial, not an annexation attempt, but it has heightened regional tensions following continued Blue Nile dam disputes between the two.

Nigeria's Central Bank Finally Meet:

Nigeria's Central Bank, under new Governor Olayemi Cardoso, is set to convene its first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting since July, scheduled for February 26 and 27, according to a released timetable. The naira's recent decline, driven by ongoing liquidity challenges, and its parallel market rate around 1,350 to the dollar have raised anticipation for MPC guidance on interest rates. With six scheduled meetings throughout the year, including in March, May, July, September, and November, investors await insights on the central bank's stance amid fluctuating economic conditions and currency values. Analysts remain divided on the anticipated direction of interest rates.

18th January 2024

Nigeria's $1.5B Aid

Nigeria is in talks with the World Bank for up to $1.5 billion to alleviate its severe dollar shortage. Finance Minister Wale Edun expressed confidence in receiving $1 billion to $1.5 billion for budgetary support, citing ongoing reforms under President Bola Tinubu. The reforms, including scrapping fuel subsidies and adjusting the exchange-rate policy, attracted international investor support but led to surging inflation and a 50% decline in the naira. Nigeria is also considering tapping the eurobond market later this year. In a positive move, Nigeria's central bank resolved the entire $7 billion forex forwards liability for 14 banks and has begun initiating settlements with foreign airlines.

Sunak Quells Rwanda Rebellion
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak appears poised to overcome a rebellion within his Conservative Party against his asylum plan to send migrants to Rwanda. Facing critics demanding a tougher immigration bill, Sunak offered minimal concessions. Despite deep concerns among rebels, many are reluctantly backing the legislation to avoid potential government collapse. With elections approaching and the Conservatives trailing in polls, some fear rejecting a bill perceived as curbing immigration rates. Sunak's likely victory comes at a cost, intensifying party divisions and resulting in the loss of two Conservative deputy chairs. Challenges for his Rwanda scheme persist in the House of Lords.

Davos Insights: Kganyago's Outlook

South African Central Bank Governor, Lesetja Kganyago, anticipates inflation to average 5% this year as the disinflation process begins. While food costs rise, November saw a slowdown in annual inflation to 5.5%. Kganyago emphasizes data-dependent decisions for potential rate cuts, waiting for sustainable declines to 4.5%. Daily power cuts have hampered growth, but renewable energy investments may alleviate the strain. Logistic challenges in state-owned Transnet and upcoming elections could impact inflation. Kganyago foresees contestation affecting the labor market and domestic inflation. The South African Reserve Bank will revisit forecasts in its upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

Ghana Secures Debt Moratorium

Ghana has successfully negotiated a debt payment moratorium with official creditors until May 2026, with bilateral obligations totaling $5.4 billion set to be repaid in two tranches after 16 and 17 years. Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta revealed these details during the World Economic Forum in Davos. The agreement, finalized in just over a year, marks one of the swiftest debt restructurings under the Group-of-20 Common Framework. The deal's terms will influence talks with commercial lenders. Ghana's eurobonds, boosted by the agreement, experienced significant gains, and the government anticipates reaching a deal with eurobond investors by end-March.

17th January 2024

Niger, Russia Bolstered Ties:

Russia and Niger had agreed to enhance military cooperation. The Russian Deputy Defense Ministers had met Niger's junta-appointed Defense Minister to develop defense relations and stabilize the region. The move had raised concerns as Niger's junta ousted French troops and severed security ties with the EU, potentially creating a new foothold for Russia. Niger's significance in uranium, oil, and combating Sahel militants made it strategically crucial for the US, Europe, China, and now Russia. The junta-appointed Prime Minister had also planned to discuss partnerships in defense, agriculture, and energy during his Moscow visit.

Shell Exited Nigeria:

Shell had agreed to sell its Nigerian onshore oil business to a consortium of local companies for over $1.3 billion. The deal had allowed Shell to exit the challenging Niger Delta region, where it had faced disputes over oil spills and human rights violations. The buyer, Renaissance, included Nigerian companies ND Western, Aradel Energy, First E&P, Waltersmith, and Petrolin. While local companies' presence had increased as international majors exited Nigeria, regulatory approval had remained uncertain. The deal, part of Shell's strategy to simplify its portfolio, involved a $1.2 billion loan to the buyers and additional cash payments. Meanwhile, Nigeria's currency had hit a record low in the parallel market due to persistent dollar shortages and increased demand. Despite currency reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu, the naira had depreciated by about 50% against the dollar in 2023. The central bank had aimed to clear a backlog of forward foreign-exchange contracts to boost investor confidence and attract inflows.

Davos 2024 Highlights:

In the kickoff of Davos 2024, South African Central Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago had dismissed interest rate cuts while inflation persisted. Kganyago had emphasized the need for inflation to decline to the anchor of 4.5% before considering policy adjustments. Despite easing supply constraints, he had noted inflation remained stubbornly high, requiring keeping rates higher for a longer duration. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana had been expected to address the deteriorating debt trajectory in the budget presentation. Elsewhere, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had pledged commitment to a peaceful resolution between Rwanda and Congo while meeting Rwandan President Paul Kagame at Davos. Tensions had involved accusations of Rwanda supporting M23 rebels, allegations Rwanda had denied. Over 6.5 million people had been displaced in Congo, emphasizing the need for diplomatic solutions to address regional conflicts and humanitarian challenges.

Tanzania Lifted Kenya Airlines Ban:

Tanzania had reinstated approval for Kenya Airways to operate flights between Nairobi and Dar es Salaam after a temporary ban. The ban had been in response to Nairobi denying Air Tanzania's request for cargo flights. The decision had reflected diplomatic negotiations, emphasizing the importance of aviation connections in the East African region, a key market for Kenya Airways.

16th January 2024

Nigeria’s Inflation Crisis

Nigeria's inflation rate hit a 27-year high in December, reaching 28.92% year on year, with food prices soaring. The prolonged surge, marking the 12th consecutive monthly increase, intensifies the cost-of-living crisis and urges the central bank to consider interest rate hikes. Food inflation, a significant part of Nigeria's inflation basket, rose to 33.93% in December. Factors such as higher fuel prices and a weakened naira contribute to the inflationary pressures. Analysts predict further increases, with inflation potentially exceeding 30% by Q1 2024. The Central Bank may face the necessity of a 400 basis points rate hike.

Ivory Coast Pioneers Eurobond

Ivory Coast is set to issue a eurobond, becoming the first sub-Saharan African country to do so in almost two years. President Alassane Ouattara announced the move, emphasizing plans for economic transformation, increased investments in sectors like digital technology and transport, and the exploration of recent oil and gas discoveries. While the size of the bond was not disclosed, Ivory Coast is anticipated to be among the fastest-growing economies in the region in 2024. The move comes as sub-Saharan African nations face challenges accessing international debt markets due to rising US interest rates.

 
Nigeria Aims for Tax Revenue Boost

Nigeria aims for a 57% boost in revenue to $20.3 billion in 2024, with the Federal Inland Revenue Service focusing on tax system reforms. Plans include improving efficiency, tax compliance, and reallocating resources from oil to non-oil sectors. The government seeks to increase revenue by targeting wealthy citizens, cutting corporate taxes, and introducing electronic invoicing for value-added tax. The initiative is part of President Bola Tinubu's reform program to spur growth and alleviate poverty, addressing Nigeria's reliance on borrowing for public spending amid low tax revenue.

More Nigeria Refinery Updates

Nigeria National Petroleum Co. is seeking private management for its recently renovated Port Harcourt refinery, the nation's largest. The move aims to improve reliability, meet fuel supply needs, and enhance energy security. The 210,000-barrel-per-day facility was refurbished for $1.5 billion and follows a report suggesting outsourcing to address inefficiencies in state-owned refineries, which operated at below 30% capacity from 2010 to 2020. Meanwhile, Oil prices dipped as the Middle East conflict showed limited impact on crude output, prompting profit-taking after last week's 2% gains. Brent crude settled at $78.15, down 0.2%, while U.S. WTI crude was at $72.50, a 0.3% decline. Tankers avoided the Red Sea after U.S. and UK strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. The conflict has disrupted LNG tankers, indirectly tightening the market. Libya protests may shut more oil facilities, and U.S. and Canada face production cuts due to extreme cold. 

15th January 2024

$12.5bn for Ogunlesi

Bayo Ogunlesi, co-founder and CEO of Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), is poised to become a billionaire as BlackRock acquires GIP for $12.5 billion. Ogunlesi, with a 17.5% stake, stands to amass a fortune of approximately $2.3 billion. The Nigerian-born finance executive, holding esteemed degrees from Oxford and Harvard, previously served at Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs. Establishing GIP in 2006, he focused on infrastructure investments, propelling the firm's success. Ogunlesi, recognized for hosting extravagant Hamptons parties, boasts influential connections in finance and politics, shaping a remarkable career trajectory.

Dangote Refinery finally live
Africa's largest refinery, Dangote, in Nigeria has initiated diesel and aviation fuel production after years of delays. Costing $20 billion and built by Aliko Dangote, the refinery aims to make Nigeria fuel-sufficient and enable fuel exports to West African nations, transforming oil trading in the Atlantic Basin. The facility is expected to refine 350,000 barrels per day initially, with plans to reach full production later this year. The move could significantly impact Nigeria's reliance on fuel imports and enhance its position as a fuel exporter in the region.

Africa's 2024 Sports Extravaganza

Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) 2023 commenced with an exhilarating opening ceremony and host Ivory Coast securing the first win of the tournament. The competition kicks off a packed Q1 agenda for the African sports calendar including the 13th African Games in Ghana, Nigeria's National Sports Festival, Egypt’s 23rd African Men’s Handball Cup of Nations and the Basketball Africa League (BAL) 2024 season, starting on March 9. Amidst the excitement, security remains a focal point following a tragic incident in the previous AFCON edition where eight lives were lost in a stadium crush in Cameroon.

Namibia slams Germany

Namibia has criticized Germany for supporting Israel in the genocide case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) brought by South Africa. The Namibian president, Hage Geingob, termed Germany’s decision as “shocking” and accused Berlin of defending “genocidal and gruesome acts” by Israel in Gaza. Namibia urged Germany to reconsider its decision, highlighting the country's historical atrocities in Namibia. The ICJ is examining South Africa’s accusations that Israel’s military campaign in Gaza amounts to genocide. Germany's stance has strained relations with Namibia, which suffered German colonial-era atrocities recognized as the 20th century’s first genocide.

12th January 2024

Dangote raid sparks fears

Nigeria's anti-graft raid on Aliko Dangote's offices sparks corporate concern and economic impact fears. The move by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) amid its broader forex investigation raises anxieties among manufacturers, signaling potential government actions against any perceived dollar market influencers. Observers view it as a message of authority from President Tinubu's administration. Nigerian bonds slump, and business leaders express apprehension about global investor confidence. Critics question the EFCC's approach, emphasizing its impact on Nigeria's commitment to corporate governance. Dangote Group denies wrongdoing, but the incident prompts a review of corporate dealings with the central bank.

Debt relief for Ghana

Ghana is a step closer to debt relief as it receives a draft term sheet from official creditors, prompting a potential $600 million disbursement from the International Monetary Fund. The draft, part of ongoing debt restructuring efforts, is seen as a positive development, with Ghana working toward IMF board approval later this month. The country aims to restructure around $5.4 billion in bilateral debt. Successful debt reorganization could also unlock an additional $550 million from the World Bank by February. The IMF expresses confidence in reaching an agreement soon as discussions continue between Ghana and the official creditor committee.

South Africa Isarael hearing begins

South Africa has accused Israel of genocide against Palestinians at the International Court of Justice, citing a pattern of conduct over the past 13 weeks. Adila Hassim, representing South Africa, argued that evidence supports a plausible claim of genocidal acts. Israel, usually avoiding international tribunals, is engaging with the court to defend against the accusations. The two-day hearing seeks a preliminary order to compel Israel to halt its military campaign in Gaza.

Multichoice AFCON reversal

Multichoice, the parent company of DStv, has reversed its decision and will now broadcast all 52 matches of the African Cup of Nations (AFCON) tournament in Ivory Coast. Earlier, the company had announced it would not broadcast AFCON 2023 on its SuperSport channels due to the inability to secure broadcasting rights. However, it has now changed course and will show the games on Supersports. This decision aligns with the Nigerian Television Authority's announcement that it will transmit all 52 AFCON matches after signing an MoU with Afro Sports.

11th January 2024

Naspers Faces Amazon Challenge

Naspers, Africa's largest company, is increasing investment in its South African online retailer, Takealot, ahead of Amazon's entry into the country's growing e-commerce market. Naspers aims to be well-prepared for the competition, leveraging its knowledge of the local market. While e-commerce constitutes only 4% of South African retail, the market offers substantial growth potential. Naspers owns Takealot, which has been expanding services, including one-hour delivery, anticipating Amazon's launch. South Africa's e-commerce sales reached ZAR 55 billion ($3 billion) in 2022, growing 30%, making it an attractive market for global retail giants.

China's Resurgence in Africa

China is anticipated to increase lending to Africa for the first time since 2016, with a focus on new countries and projects ranging from renewable energy to natural gas, according to Standard Chartered. While not reaching the 2016 peak of close to $30 billion, this potential rise in Chinese lending could offer support to African economies facing challenges in international capital markets. The shift may lead African nations to seek funding from other sources, such as the UAE, Turkey, India, and Japan. Chinese lending is expected to concentrate on select African countries and focus mainly on private sector investment.

Cadbury's Naira Fix

Cadbury Nigeria plans to convert $7.7 million of foreign-currency loans from Cadbury Schweppes Overseas into equity to alleviate high financing costs due to the naira devaluation. The move, pending shareholder approval, aims to cut exposure to forex risk, reduce finance costs, and enhance profitability. Cadbury Nigeria had borrowed $23 million over three years but struggled with interest payments amid Nigeria's dollar shortage. President Bola Tinubu's foreign-currency reforms triggered a 50% naira depreciation. The debt-to-equity conversion aligns with efforts to mitigate forex challenges faced by Nigerian companies amid economic shifts. *Meanwhile Nigerian stocks ended an eight-day rally, declining 1.4% as investors took profits from the liquid banking sector. The All Share Index dropped to 82,024.38 points, after crossing the 80,000-point threshold on Monday. The index of Nigeria's top 10 banks fell 7.97% on the day.

Change in fortune for Ex-CBN Chief
The High Court of the Federal Capital Territory has ruled that the detention of former Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) chief, Mr. Emefiele, by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and Department of State Service (DSS) during their investigation was a violation of his right to liberty. The judge restrained the government and its agents from re-arresting Emefiele without obtaining an order from a competent court. The former CBN chief faces allegations of procurement fraud, which he vehemently denies. The court held that Emefiele's 151-day detention exceeded the legal 48-hour limit, ordering damages in his favor.

10th January 2024

Tensions Rise Over Red Sea

 Somalia's President, Hassan Sheik Mohamud, issued a warning, pledging "all necessary measures" to defend against Ethiopia's pursuit of direct access to the Red Sea via Somaliland. Mohamud invalidated Ethiopia's deal with Somaliland, denouncing it as unacceptable. The Jan. 1 agreement allowed Ethiopia a 50-year sea corridor lease in exchange for a stake in Ethiopian Airlines. Mohamud seeks support from foreign actors. Egypt expressed support for Somalia's sovereignty. Djibouti urged de-escalation, while Ethiopia and Somaliland discussed military cooperation. Protests erupted, leading to arrests in Somaliland, intensifying tensions in the Horn of Africa.

Dangote Refinery Fires Up

Dangote Group's colossal African refinery is poised to begin operations after securing the six million barrels of crude required for test production. The refinery, near Lagos, is Africa's largest and will significantly impact regional and global crude and fuel markets upon full operation. Although the maiden cargo arrived, experts anticipate months before full-scale production. With the capacity to meet Nigeria's fuel demands and surplus for exports, the Dangote refinery aims to transform the energy landscape. The facility, supplied by domestic and international crude, holds the potential to influence Africa's energy dynamics and trade relationships.

Ghana Nears Debt Revamp

Ghana anticipates a draft term sheet for the restructuring of its $5.4 billion bilateral debts, allowing the country to seek a $600 million disbursement from the IMF. Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta expects approval during the IMF board meeting on January 18. The move follows Ghana's debt restructuring efforts initiated in December 2022. Successful restructuring could also unlock $550 million from the World Bank by February. Ghana's debt, excluding state-owned enterprise loans, decreased to 66.4% of GDP by September 2022. Dollar bonds rose on the news, with the 2027 bonds up 1.3% to 43.88 cents.

Africa's Economic Outlook Soars

Despite economic challenges, Sub-Saharan Africa is set for a brighter outlook in 2024, with six of the world's top-10 performing economies predicted to come from the region, according to the International Monetary Fund. Smaller but vibrant economies like Ivory Coast and Tanzania, with growth rates of 6.6% and 6.1%, respectively, contribute to the positive shift. The IMF forecasts regional growth to reach 4% in 2024, up from 3.3% in 2023, with Nigeria and South Africa pursuing reforms for potential future benefits. Nigeria's growth is projected at 3%, while South Africa aims for 1.8% in 2024.

9th January 2024

Nigeria’s $2billion settlement
Nigeria's central bank has disbursed nearly $2 billion in the past three months to settle outstanding forex forwards, aiming to clear a backlog and boost confidence in the foreign exchange market. The country, facing forex shortages exacerbated by declining oil production, has nearly $7 billion in matured forex forwards, concerning investors. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) also recently paid $61.64 million to foreign airlines owed over $700 million, signaling efforts to address outstanding transactions and alleviate pressure on the exchange rate. President Bola Tinubu pledges to attract new investment and reform the forex market to enhance foreign currency inflows.

 
Dangote probe continues
Dangote Group, led by Africas richest man Aliko Dangote, criticized a recent visit by Nigeria’s anti-graft commission to its Lagos offices, calling it an attempt to cause unwarranted embarrassment. The group clarified that no accusations of wrongdoing were made against them in connection to the probe of Nigeria’s central bank. The investigation, part of a broader inquiry into former central bank head Godwin Emefiele's tenure, was initiated by President Bola Tinubu. Emefiele faces allegations of manipulating the naira and establishing numerous unauthorized offshore accounts. Meanwhile, Nigerian stocks reached a record high, surpassing 80,000 points for the first time, driven by a fifth consecutive session of gains. The All Share Index closed at 80,328.58 points, up 0.83%.

 Zimbabwe's Dollar Dips

 The Zimbabwean dollar, has faced a sharp decline of over 40% on the black market at the start of the year due to heightened demand for foreign exchange, surpassing available supply. The conclusion of tobacco sales and a dip in global commodity prices have impacted local dollar inflows, causing the exchange rate to plummet. Zimbabwe, reliant on mining for 85% of its foreign exchange, faces challenges in stabilizing its currency. The local unit is now trading at Z$10,900 per US dollar, significantly lower than the official rate of Z$6,467. Authorities aim to restore equilibrium amid the widening gap.

Zimbabwe's Golden Challenge

Zimbabwe's 2023 gold production reached 30 metric tons, a 15% decline from the previous year, attributed to electricity cuts and currency instability. Once a leading African gold producer, Zimbabwe has lagged behind due to economic challenges, deterring investors. Despite a recovery from the 2008 crisis, the 2023 output fell short of the government's 40-ton target. Gold producers, continue to grapple with a depreciating local currency, power cuts and operational challenges in a sector dominated by small-scale miners.

9th November 2023

Tinubu Signs

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu signed a $2.8 billion supplementary budget, allocating funds for bulletproof cars, a presidential yacht, and renovations, sparking criticism amid a cost-of-living crisis. While the budget aimed to address urgent issues like defense and security, allocations for perceived luxury items and residential upgrades drew public ire. Critics argue the spending is insensitive to citizens grappling with inflation and economic challenges. Tinubu, facing pressure to offer relief, urges patience with ongoing reforms in the nation plagued by inflation, currency woes, insecurity, and oil theft.

Naira Slide Resumes

The Nigerian naira weakened by about 7% to 1,150 naira per dollar on the parallel market due to a backlog of unsettled foreign-exchange forward contracts. Despite the central bank's efforts to clear contracts with some banks, analysts note that the outstanding amount remains substantial. The naira had strengthened to 950 per dollar last week after the central bank's announcement. Airlines are facing challenges repatriating income, with a large backlog of unmet requests for dollars. The government aims to attract $10 billion in inflows to clear the backlog and stabilize the currency. Nigeria's President Bola Tinubu will attend the Saudi-Africa summit in Riyadh this week to attract foreign direct investment

Malawi Devalues Again

Malawi's central bank is devaluing its kwacha currency by about 30% against the dollar, setting a new exchange rate at 1,700 kwacha from the previous 1,180. This marks the second significant devaluation, aimed at addressing supply-demand imbalances and preventing arbitrage opportunities. The move aims to stabilize foreign currency reserves amid pressure from rising commodity prices and falling revenue from tobacco exports. The central bank plans close monitoring to prevent market disorder.

Egypt LNG Crisis

Tight gas balances and reduced imports from Israel make it unlikely for EU countries to receive more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Egypt in the short to medium term. The country's gas production had already declined to a three-year low, facing increased demand amid power cuts. The June 2022 Memorandum of Understanding committing to higher supply is now likely undeliverable due to the Israel-Hamas conflict and the resulting shutdown of the Israeli Tamar gas field. Egypt's LNG exports are expected to remain low, impacting its ability to meet commitments outlined in the agreement with the EU and Israel.

8th November 2023

Impala Platinum Initiates Layoffs

Johannesburg-based mining company Impala Platinum is initiating voluntary job cuts at its deep South African platinum mines in response to declining metal prices, particularly in palladium. The precise extent of job reductions and cost savings has not been disclosed. Company spokesperson Johan Theron emphasized the necessity to reduce costs, stating, "We are obviously doing everything to reduce costs. Labour is a big cost component so you always start with labor by offering voluntary separation packages." Long-term concern arises from the growth of the electric vehicle market, which threatens the demand for metals used in emission-curbing catalysts for traditional combustion engine vehicles.

Dollar supremacy

The South African rand weakened by 0.4% against the US dollar, erasing some recent gains, as the dollar strengthened by more than 0.3% against major currencies. The rand had rallied previously, reflecting optimism that the US Federal Reserve might pause interest rate hikes. Investors are now focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speeches for hints on the central bank's stance, as well as South Africa's mining and manufacturing data for economic health clues. Both the Top 40 and all-share indices closed over 2% lower, primarily due to a more than 4% drop in the resources index. South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond remained stable with a 10.400% yield.

Nigerias New Oil

Nigeria's NNPC has introduced a new crude grade called Nembe as the country seeks to increase oil production. The state owned company has resurrected the grade following past disruption by sabotage on the Nembe Creek Trunk Line. The first Nembe cargoes were sold in October, with plans to raise production from the current 50,000 barrels per day to 80,000 by Q1 2024 and 150,000 by the start of 2025. Nigeria aims to boost its oil production to around 1.8 million barrels per day by the end of 2023. The new crude grade is expected to compete with Brazilian and Azeri crude for European refiners.

Oil tumbles

Oil prices tumbled over 4% to their lowest levels since late July due to mixed Chinese economic data, increased OPEC exports, and a stronger U.S. dollar. Brent crude futures settled at $81.61 per barrel, down 4.2%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $77.37 per barrel, down 4.3%. Concerns about a wider regional conflict disrupting oil supplies have eased, and OPEC's increased exports, up by about 1 million barrels per day since August, have added to the pressure on prices. China's economic outlook, along with rising U.S. crude oil stocks, contributed to the bearish sentiment.

9th August 2023

Fresh Niger Sanctions

Fresh sanctions were imposed on Niger after its military leaders rebuffed a recent diplomatic mission aiming to restore constitutional order post-coup. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu enacted the sanctions through the central bank to target coup participants, signaling international pressure on the takeover. A joint delegation from West African states, the African Union, and the United Nations was denied entry by Niger's junta, escalating tensions and complicating the search for a resolution. Heads of state from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) prepare for a summit to address the standoff, considering diplomatic and military actions.

Gabon’s Debt-for-Nature

In a pioneering move for Africa, Gabon has initiated a debt-for-nature swap, purchasing $500 million of its international debt and issuing an equal-sized environmentally conscious 'blue bond' that matures in 2038. Acquiring discounted bonds, Gabon accepted around $436 million, just below its $450 million limit, with investors offering over $1.1 billion. The 'blue bond' carries a 6.097% interest rate, making it more cost-effective than the existing bonds being partially bought back, which have coupons between 6.625% and 7%. The swap, facilitated by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, aims to fund conservation efforts in Gabon, renowned for hosting a significant leatherback turtle population.

Nedbank Loan Concerns

Nedbank Group (NEDJ.J), one of South Africa's leading lenders, cautioned about prolonged elevated bad loans and potential failure to achieve 2025 financial goals. Despite this, the bank's shares gained 2.5% after a solid 11% profit increase in H1 and CEO Mike Brown's anticipation of reduced bad loans in the latter half. While typically well-capitalized and conservative, South Africa's top five banks face challenges due to inflation, high interest rates, power outages, and logistical bottlenecks affecting retail and small business clients. This resulted in a 57% surge in asset impairment, leading to a credit loss ratio breach of 121 basis points, threatening the bank's medium-term 2025 target.

Namibia-Japan exploration

Japan has signed an agreement with Namibia to jointly explore rare earth minerals, a key step in its plan to build resilient supply chains for minerals vital in electric vehicle (EV) battery production. The Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) will collaborate with Namibia's state-owned Epangelo mining firm, focusing on developing a sustainable supply of cobalt and other minerals. Yasutoshi Nishimura, Japan's Minister for Economy, Trade, and Industry, is pursuing a broader African supply chain of critical minerals, reducing dependence on China's dominance in battery minerals. JOGMEC is already engaged with Namibia Critical Metals Inc. (NMI.V) in the Lofdal deposit project, known for yttrium, dysprosium, and terbium production essential for EV batteries and wind turbines.

8th August 2023

Niger Junta Rejects Ultimatum

West African leaders have convened a summit to address the Niger junta's rejection of an ultimatum to reinstate the ousted president, raising hopes for a non-violent resolution. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) had ordered the coup leaders to step down by Sunday or face potential military intervention. In response, the junta closed Niger's airspace and vowed to defend the nation. Nevertheless, ECOWAS decided to hold a Thursday summit to discuss the situation, allowing room for mediation, as noted by the European Union and the United States. Niger's strategic significance and regional stability concerns have drawn international attention.

BRICS Summit Returns

The 15th summit of the BRICS group, is set to take place in Johannesburg from August 22-24. South Africa, will host the first in-person summit since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Among the attendees expected are South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, China's President Xi Jinping, Brazil's President Luiz Lula da Silva, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Russian President Vladimir Putin will be a virtual participant due to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant linked to alleged war crimes in Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will represent him in Johannesburg. The summit is expected to address the contentious issue of expanding the group by admitting new members, China’s expansion drive to enhance its geopolitical influence amid tensions with the US, and Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine.

Africa's VC Funding Plunge

Africa's VC market experienced a $1.4 billion funding contraction in H1 2023, shaking the continent's startup ecosystem and raising concerns for future entrepreneurship. The African Private Capital Association's report "Shifting Ventures: Africa's VC Landscape" revealed a 40% decline in deal volume and total funding, with only 263 VC deals worth $2.1 billion compared to the previous year's $3.5 billion. Global investors' caution led to fewer high-ticket investments, impacting the region since the 2022 "funding winter." Despite challenges, West Africa emerged as a focal point, while fintech startups remained dominant. Entrepreneurs adapt to seek alternative funding, ensuring Africa's entrepreneurial spirit endures.

Atlantic Lithium: Ghana Greenlight

Atlantic Lithium (A11.AX) expressed confidence in obtaining a lithium mine lease in Ghana following the country's government approval of a green minerals policy. The policy incorporates changes to mining royalty rates and the state's interest in minerals projects. Atlantic Lithium is currently in discussions with Ghana's Minerals Commission. In a previous investment move, Piedmont Lithium (PLL.O) invested $100 million to secure high-purity lithium ore from Atlantic Lithium's Ghana mine. The latter's lithium supply is part of Piedmont's plans to provide materials to electric-vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA.O). Earlier, short seller Blue Orca Capital alleged secret payments for Ghana mining licenses, which Atlantic Lithium refuted.

7th August 2023

Niger Coup Drama Persists

Amidst West Africa's regional bloc's military intervention threat, thousands of Niger's coup leaders' supporters gathered at a stadium in Niamey on Sunday, displaying unwavering support as the ultimatum to reinstate the president elapsed. Despite the seventh coup in the region in three years causing ripples in the impoverished Sahel region, the junta remained defiant, refusing to bow to external pressure following the July 26 coup. With uranium and oil resources and a key role in fighting Islamist militants, Niger holds strategic importance for global powers. ECOWAS defense chiefs have agreed on military action if detained President Bazoum is not released and reinstated. Amidst tensions, solidarity debates aired on television, and Italy reduced its troop numbers in Niger to accommodate civilians needing protection at its military base.

Tinubu's Reform Optimism

S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria's outlook from negative to stable, citing recent government reforms that could positively impact the country's growth and fiscal outcomes if effectively implemented. The credit ratings agency affirmed Nigeria's rating at 'B-/B', acknowledging President Bola Tinubu's ambitious reforms aimed at attracting foreign investments and spurring economic growth. Tinubu's measures include scrapping petrol subsidies and unifying exchange rates. While investors welcome these reforms, unions express concerns about rising costs and inflation. The World Bank estimates potential savings of up to 3.9 trillion naira from the reforms but cautions about short-term inflationary pressures.

Libyan Leadership Shuffle

In a televised vote, Libya's High State Council (HSC) replaced its leader, adding uncertainty to the political standoff over government control and elections. The HSC, with influence under a 2015 political agreement, negotiates with Libya's main parliament, the House of Representatives (HoR). Mohammed Takala won the run-off with 67 votes to 62, ousting Khaled al-Meshri, the HSC's former leader. The HSC and HoR are under U.N. pressure to find a path to elections, but they seek to replace the interim government before voting. International diplomacy centers on elections as a lasting solution, questioning the legitimacy of both HSC and HoR.

Senegal Presidential Pardons

Senegal's parliament has taken a significant step by passing a vote that restores the eligibility of two key opposition figures to run in the upcoming presidential election in February. The decision allows Khalifa Sall and Karim Wade, both opposition heavyweights, to stand for office. The bill clears individuals with previous convictions through either pardon or amnesty to re-enter the electoral race. President Macky Sall's efforts to initiate a national dialogue resulted in revising the electoral code, a move praised by the presidential majority. This parliamentary decision aims to ease the tension and promote a more inclusive democratic process ahead of the crucial vote.

3rd August 2023

Rand's Rollercoaster Ride

The South African rand continued its slump on Wednesday, losing 1% against the dollar, amid growing risk-off sentiment driven by global economic growth concerns. The dollar strengthened by 0.7% against major currencies after Fitch's surprise downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. Manufacturing activity contraction in the U.S., Germany, China, and other nations added to the worries. Emerging market currencies, including the rand, faced pressure as investors sought the safety of the dollar. Johannesburg Stock Exchange saw energy and tech stocks dragging shares down, with the all-share index ending 2.75% lower and the Top-40 index closing 2.9% down. South Africa's 2030 government bond yield rose 4 basis points to 10.370%.

Niger Coup Continues

West African regional bloc ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States 

) has sent a delegation to Niger to negotiate with the military junta that seized power last week. The bloc has imposed sanctions and warned of possible military intervention if the elected president is not reinstated within a week. While a military option is on the table, ECOWAS aims for a diplomatic solution. Nigeria has cut power supplies to Niger as fallout from the sanctions begins. The delegation, led by former Nigerian military leader Abdulsalami Abubakar, is working towards restoring democratic governance. The situation remains closely monitored by foreign powers, with some evacuating their citizens.

Senegal's TikTok Tantrum

Senegalese authorities have blocked access to TikTok, extending their crackdown on dissent after dissolving the main opposition party and detaining its leader. The power struggle between Pastef party leader Ousmane Sonko and President Macky Sall has sparked violent demonstrations, tarnishing Senegal's reputation as a stable democracy in West Africa. The move follows a trend of military coups in the region, with Niger witnessing one recently. Senegal's communications minister cited the social network's potential to spread "hateful and subversive messages" as the reason for the ban. However, some residents argue that the ban stifles learning opportunities and hampers online business activities. Sonko faced charges of planning an insurrection and various other offenses on Saturday, leading to his arrest and subsequent detention.

UK Aid Boost for Nigeria

UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly pledged a £58 million ($73 million) aid package to bolster the country's food security during his inaugural visit to Nigeria. The funding aims to enhance food production and resilience to climate change, with £55 million designated for such projects. Additionally, £2.89 million will support rural communities in improving animal health and adopting cleaner cooking practices to reduce carbon emissions. Part of a £95 million program unveiled at the COP27 climate summit in Egypt last year, the aid package aims to foster a stronger partnership between UK and Nigerian businesses, mutually benefiting both nations.

2nd August 2023

AngloGold's Golden Drop

 AngloGold Ashanti (ANGJ.J) shares plummeted over 8% on Tuesday as the mining company predicted a potential 58% decline in half-year profit. The drop is primarily attributed to increased costs and mandatory environmental provisions in Brazil. Johannesburg-based AngloGold projects headline earnings per share (HEPS) to range between $0.30 and $0.37 for the six months ending June 30, compared to $0.71 the previous year. The firm incurred environmental provisions of $38 million net of tax due to new Brazilian legislation governing mineral waste facilities. Inflation also drove up operating costs by $111 million, while gold production remained relatively stable.

Niger Coup Rattles Uranium

 The price of uranium has shown a slight increase following Niger's recent military coup, whilst mining operations continue in the world's seventh-largest producer of the radioactive metal. The spot price reached $56.25 per pound from $56.15 a week earlier, and while it has doubled over the past three years, it remains far from its peak in 2007. Experts predict potential further price rises in the coming weeks due to tight uranium markets and rising demand. As Niger produces 4 percent of the world's uranium supply, its current events are of great interest, especially to Europe, which heavily relies on the metal.

Rand's Summer Slump

 The South African rand weakened against the dollar, losing momentum after a strong July performance and amid increased global risk-off sentiment. The rand traded at 18.2500 against the dollar, about 2% weaker than its previous close. Currency strategists attributed Monday's weakness to concerns about China's economy, which dampened risk appetite. The Absa Purchasing Managers' Index indicated manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in July. Additionally, economists predict that South Africa will exceed its budget deficit target this year due to infrastructure bottlenecks, high unemployment, and the worst power crisis.

Mozambique 'Tuna Bond' Drama

Mozambican President Nyusi seeks immunity in London's High Court to block allegations of accepting unlawful payments in the $2bn "tuna bond" scandal against Credit Suisse and others. The case involving shipbuilder Privinvest and owner Iskandar Safa has faced difficulties due to Mozambique's failure to disclose key documents. Privinvest and Safa aim to hold Nyusi liable for payments they say funded his election campaign. Nyusi claims immunity as a sitting head of state. The case revolves around deals between state-owned companies and Privinvest, leading to a currency collapse, debt crisis, and prolonged litigation since 2016.