7th August 2023

Niger Coup Drama Persists

Amidst West Africa's regional bloc's military intervention threat, thousands of Niger's coup leaders' supporters gathered at a stadium in Niamey on Sunday, displaying unwavering support as the ultimatum to reinstate the president elapsed. Despite the seventh coup in the region in three years causing ripples in the impoverished Sahel region, the junta remained defiant, refusing to bow to external pressure following the July 26 coup. With uranium and oil resources and a key role in fighting Islamist militants, Niger holds strategic importance for global powers. ECOWAS defense chiefs have agreed on military action if detained President Bazoum is not released and reinstated. Amidst tensions, solidarity debates aired on television, and Italy reduced its troop numbers in Niger to accommodate civilians needing protection at its military base.

Tinubu's Reform Optimism

S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria's outlook from negative to stable, citing recent government reforms that could positively impact the country's growth and fiscal outcomes if effectively implemented. The credit ratings agency affirmed Nigeria's rating at 'B-/B', acknowledging President Bola Tinubu's ambitious reforms aimed at attracting foreign investments and spurring economic growth. Tinubu's measures include scrapping petrol subsidies and unifying exchange rates. While investors welcome these reforms, unions express concerns about rising costs and inflation. The World Bank estimates potential savings of up to 3.9 trillion naira from the reforms but cautions about short-term inflationary pressures.

Libyan Leadership Shuffle

In a televised vote, Libya's High State Council (HSC) replaced its leader, adding uncertainty to the political standoff over government control and elections. The HSC, with influence under a 2015 political agreement, negotiates with Libya's main parliament, the House of Representatives (HoR). Mohammed Takala won the run-off with 67 votes to 62, ousting Khaled al-Meshri, the HSC's former leader. The HSC and HoR are under U.N. pressure to find a path to elections, but they seek to replace the interim government before voting. International diplomacy centers on elections as a lasting solution, questioning the legitimacy of both HSC and HoR.

Senegal Presidential Pardons

Senegal's parliament has taken a significant step by passing a vote that restores the eligibility of two key opposition figures to run in the upcoming presidential election in February. The decision allows Khalifa Sall and Karim Wade, both opposition heavyweights, to stand for office. The bill clears individuals with previous convictions through either pardon or amnesty to re-enter the electoral race. President Macky Sall's efforts to initiate a national dialogue resulted in revising the electoral code, a move praised by the presidential majority. This parliamentary decision aims to ease the tension and promote a more inclusive democratic process ahead of the crucial vote.